On October 1, Marathon Petroleum rose 3.02% in regular trading, trading at $403.86/share, with turnover of $321 million. The stock advanced alongside a broad rally in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector, driven by persistent geopolitical supply risks and elevated crude oil prices.

On the news front, the Middle East supply landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. Saudi Arabia's key East-West crude pipeline, which was shut down following a drone strike on September 10, has only partially resumed operations at roughly half its design capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain at an impasse, and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue to underscore regional vulnerability. Bank of America recently raised its year-end Brent crude target to $95 per barrel, warning that sustained supply disruptions could push prices above $150. Brent crude remains near $100 per barrel.

The refining sector saw broad-based gains, with Delek US Holdings up 6.69%, PBF Energy up 6.53%, HF Sinclair up 3.97%, Phillips 66 up 3.12%, and Valero up 2.17%. Marathon Petroleum, which operates one of the largest US refining systems with approximately 3 million barrels per day of crude capacity, stands to benefit directly from elevated crack spreads in a tight supply environment. Several analysts have recently raised price targets, with Piper Sandler setting a $462 target and UBS at $450.

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