According to the latest memory industry research from TrendForce, in the fourth quarter of 2026, DRAM manufacturers will continue to allocate advanced process capacity toward high-performance products for server applications, maintaining an overall supply-demand imbalance. However, the pace of contract price increases is slowing, with conventional DRAM expected to rise 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter. The NAND Flash market is showing a dual-track development characterized by AI acceleration and low consumer demand that nonetheless drags prices higher, with overall contract prices projected to increase 15% to 20% quarter-on-quarter.
On the PC DRAM demand side, although fourth-quarter notebook finished-goods inventory will reflect pressure from high-cost raw materials and weigh on end-market sales, PC OEMs are maintaining aggressive procurement in consideration of continued DRAM supply tightness in 2027, supporting prices upward. On the supply side, manufacturers are delivering on a quarterly basis in line with agreed volumes with PC OEMs and module makers in 2026, but as capacity gradually shifts toward server applications, PC DRAM supply could contract in 2027.
Looking at the server DRAM market, as server CPU supply improves, CSPs and server OEMs are increasing bit procurement from manufacturers to meet RDIMM demand for general-purpose servers in Agentic AI scenarios. On the supply side, although memory manufacturers have raised the proportion of low-capacity RDIMM supply in response to customer demand, constraints from component supply, packaging and testing capacity, and DRAM front-end process flexibility mean the supply mix and demand remain mismatched. The supply-demand imbalance in server DRAM will persist through the fourth quarter, with some sellers' shipment prices constrained by long-term agreement (LTA) price range mechanisms, causing price increases to lag the market average.
As mobile DRAM costs rise and low-priced inventory is depleted, smartphone production volumes continue to decline, dragging down overall bit demand. Meanwhile, manufacturers, attracted by strong AI demand and high profitability, continue diverting capacity toward servers and other areas, leaving smartphone mobile DRAM allocations still tight. Overall, the upward price trend for mobile DRAM is firmly established, but since earlier periods already largely front-loaded the increases, the fourth-quarter price gain is expected to moderate compared with the previous quarter.
Analyzing graphics DRAM, as some PC brands seek to reduce overall BOM costs, GDDR6 has regained consideration for adoption. GDDR7 demand is primarily driven by AI chips, with overall pull momentum outperforming the PC market. On the supply side, suppliers continue to scale back GDDR6 production and gradually exit the market, while GDDR7 is constrained by advanced process capacity being diverted to server DRAM and other applications, resulting in limited actual output. Graphics DRAM prices overall continue to rise.
In the consumer DRAM segment, beyond existing consumer networking and television applications, recent demand growth is mainly coming from SSD customers, particularly as the QLC SSD demand outlook is revised upward, driving a corresponding increase in DRAM die demand. However, major manufacturers' production cuts remain unchanged, and market supply still relies heavily on other suppliers. Overall prices continue to climb, but the pace of increases is moderating.
In the client SSD market, PC OEMs in the fourth quarter can ship through finished-goods inventory and channel stockpiles built up in the first half, needing only to replenish sporadic shortage categories. To lower BOM costs, brand vendors are also reducing mainstream PC SSD capacities, with procurement volume and equipped capacity contracting in tandem. With buyers holding inventory and procurement volumes limited, memory manufacturers have adopted a more flexible pricing stance, and price increases are being restrained.
The enterprise SSD situation is entirely different. As CSPs continue to ramp up AI inference infrastructure, enterprise SSD bit demand is estimated to grow more than 80% year-on-year in 2026. Procurement drivers are shifting from large language model (LLM) training to actual AI deployment, with the large-scale rollout of Agentic AI exponentially amplifying real-time retrieval and cache data volumes, and QLC penetration into vector databases rising in tandem. Strong demand is prompting manufacturers to expand QLC capacity and high-capacity model supply, and the PCIe 6.0 interface is also ramping with new-generation AI server platforms. However, most of the new supply has already been pre-locked, with limited volumes flowing into the open market. Overall enterprise SSD price increases are expected to expand in the fourth quarter, making it the category with accelerating price growth.
In the eMMC/UFS segment, major demand-side smartphone brand vendors are mostly relying on existing inventory to support fourth-quarter production, with very limited additional procurement from manufacturers. Lower-margin products such as TVs, set-top boxes, and wearables have even less room to chase prices. Even as manufacturers seek to achieve across-the-board price adjustments leveraging the AI-driven upward trend, OEMs are responding only with minimum volumes to maintain supply relationships, effectively reducing negotiations to price confirmations on small orders.
Analyzing the NAND Flash wafer segment, with wafer prices at historic highs and downstream retail channels unable to fully absorb them, procurement by key module-maker customers has turned conservative. On the supply side, as manufacturers allocate capacity with profitability as the guide, total wafer releases remain constrained. However, with module-end buying sentiment sluggish, overall prices are expected to rise only slightly.