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Survey Background

The survey was conducted from September 14 to 18, focusing on eastern Heilongjiang, with a route covering Jiamusi, Fujin, Hulin, Mishan, Jixi, and the surrounding areas of Mudanjiang. Given significant volatility in corn and soybean futures earlier in the season, and as crops are now in the late growth stage just before harvest, this survey aimed to collect field sampling data to verify crop growth, yield, and development progress in the region's major production areas. The team also visited large oil processing plants, delivery warehouses, and spoke with local growers to understand planting costs, land rental rates, selling intentions, and future planting plans, providing a foundation for assessing price trends for the new season's domestic corn and soybean markets.

Findings on Soybean Conditions

Feedback from Surveyed Enterprises

The team visited a leading oil processing plant in Harbin, a major player in northeastern non-GMO soybean processing and trade, with an annual processing capacity of approximately 300,000 tons. Its purchasing and sales patterns are highly representative of the flow of commercial soybeans in eastern Heilongjiang. Key findings include:

(1) Area and yield: The company reports a 10% to 15% reduction in soybean planting area across Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia, a steeper decline than the provincial average. This year's yields are generally in line with normal years. While several rounds of rainfall occurred in August, the impact on soybeans was minimal, with only a slight effect on corn. The company expects soybean yields to be marginally lower than last year. The early frost in Nenjiang, which had attracted market attention, had virtually no impact on soybeans, with yields in that area and eastern Heilongjiang still around 300 jin per mu.

(2) Costs and returns: Planting costs continue to rise, driven mainly by land rents and agricultural inputs. However, due to relatively high soybean prices, growers generally remain profitable, with no widespread losses reported. The increase in land rents is particularly notable, rising by 1,500 to 2,000 yuan per hectare compared to last year, making it the primary factor pushing up total costs.

(3) Selling and planting intentions: The company expects growers' selling intentions to remain largely unchanged, with peak selling periods concentrated after harvest, before the Spring Festival, and before the next planting season. Many local growers operate on a seasonal basis, spending half the year farming in the northeast. Given that soybean prices have risen for two consecutive years from low opening levels, despite current prices being relatively high, a large-scale, concentrated surge in supply is not necessarily expected. In terms of planting intentions, the local practice of annual corn-soybean rotation remains in place, though the willingness to plant soybeans is still relatively low.

(4) Harvest pace: This year's soybean harvest is expected to be about a week later than last year, with large-scale market supply likely around the National Day holiday.

(5) Market and operations: The company indicates that current pricing is primarily based on hedging, with no speculative positions, and prices remain slightly elevated. Market activity has increased following foreign participation, and policy-driven grain releases have a significant impact on prices. However, policy uncertainty this year is higher than in previous years, prompting the company to exercise greater caution in procurement and hedging activities.

On-Site Field Survey

Between September 15 and 17, the survey team collected data from 11 soybean field sample points across Huachuan County, Shuangyashan, Jixian County, Hulin, Mishan, Jidong, and the Mudanjiang periphery, recording row spacing, plant counts, plant height, pod numbers, and bean counts per plant. Results show plant heights predominantly ranging from 60 to 90 cm, averaging about 78 cm. Pod counts per plant ranged from 30 to over 40, averaging around 34, while bean counts per plant generally fell between 70 and 120, averaging about 84. Compared to publicly available data from national and provincial variety approvals and provincial academy of agricultural sciences publications, the measured plant heights, effective pods per plant, and beans per pod all fall within normal ranges, with beans per plant at the upper end of the normal spectrum. Planting patterns in eastern Heilongjiang primarily feature 45 cm small ridges with double rows and 110/130 cm large ridges for dense planting. Based on row configurations and plant counts per 5-meter ridge segment, estimated plant density ranges from 9,000 to 18,000 plants per mu. Using a 100-grain weight of 20 grams and a field loss of 15%, preliminary calculations suggest yields of just over 200 jin per mu at sites in Shuangyashan Bijiashan, Yanshan Town Taiping Village, Hulin Baodong Town, and the Mudanjiang periphery. Other sample plots performed better, with some showing yields exceeding 300 to 400 jin per mu, though these figures may be influenced by sampling errors or incomplete maturity and leaf drop at the time of sampling. Overall, the field data from eastern Heilongjiang directionally confirms the large oil processor's assessment that new season yields are at normal levels. However, it is worth noting that reports from the western Heilongjiang route indicate less favorable yields in that area, which could lower overall new season soybean yield expectations. Additionally, this year's harvest is later than last year's, and the risk of frost after the National Day holiday warrants close attention.

Summary of Soybean Survey

Combining field sampling with industry chain visits, the 2026 soybean crop in eastern Heilongjiang is characterized by "slightly reduced area, normal yields, rising costs, cautious sentiment, and relatively high prices." In terms of area, the eastern region and parts of eastern Inner Mongolia saw a 10% to 15% reduction in planting, with corn's better returns keeping soybean planting intentions weak. For yields, sampling along the route and discussions with local growers indicate normal conditions, with most surveyed plots yielding over 200 jin per mu and the better plots exceeding 300 jin. Costs are being squeezed primarily by soaring land rents, up 1,500 to 2,000 yuan per hectare, with province-wide rent increases year-on-year. Sentiment-wise, the inertia of crop rotation keeps soybean planting intentions low, and selling follows a distributed pattern driven by three key periods: after harvest, before the Spring Festival, and ahead of the next planting season.

Looking ahead, reduced new season supply is widely anticipated, and rising planting costs coupled with policy reserve support provide strong price support at lower levels. However, regular state reserve rotations, high prices dampening downstream and midstream demand, and imported soybean volumes expected to hit record highs all pose significant constraints on upside price movement. Several factors require close monitoring: first, the pace of concentrated soybean supply and opening prices around the National Day holiday, particularly any seasonal selling pressure; second, the timing and scale of state and provincial reserve releases, which represent the most critical marginal variable for prices this year; third, the squeeze on larger tenant farmers from high land rents, which could trigger concentrated selling if prices fall; fourth, weather conditions during harvest, especially any early frost impact on immature fields; and fifth, whether the soybean-to-corn price ratio can sustainably recover to above average levels, influencing next year's planting decisions. Overall, domestic soybeans are likely to experience range-bound trading with a gradual upward drift in the center of gravity, and investors are advised to avoid chasing rallies or capitulating to panic selling.

Findings on Corn Conditions

September 15 Field Survey in Huachuan County, Jiamusi

Jiamusi spans the second and third accumulated temperature zones. The Sanjiang Plain area of Jiamusi primarily grows machine-harvested grain corn, with commercial grain flowing to feed mills and starch processing plants. In the southern second temperature zone (Tangyuan, Huachuan, urban area), mainstream varieties include Dongnong 264, Longyu 806, and Z688. In the northern third temperature zone (northern Fujin, Tongjiang, Fuyuan), early-maturing varieties such as Demeiya 3 and Songyu 438 are preferred to guard against early frost. Dent and semi-dent yellow kernel varieties with rapid moisture loss are well-suited to large-scale mechanized direct harvesting across the Sanjiang Plain, with conventional varieties having starch content of 72% to 73.5%, long cylindrical ears, red cobs, ear lengths of 21 to 24 cm, ear diameters around 5.2 cm, and plant heights of 280 to 300 cm.

1. Field measurements taken at Xifeng Village, Chuangye Township, Huachuan County.

September 15 Survey in Shuangyashan

Shuangyashan is predominantly in the second accumulated temperature zone. The plain areas (Youyi, Jixian, northern Baoqing) favor varieties like Longyu 806, Z688, and Dongnong 264, while the cooler mountainous areas (Raohe, southern Baoqing) are in the third temperature zone, where Songyu 438, Demeiya 3, and Longdan 328 are prioritized for safe maturation. Ears are cylindrical, 20 to 25 cm long, with diameters around 5.5 cm, 14 to 18 kernel rows, red cobs, semi-dent yellow kernels, and are suitable for dense planting on large ridges, offering strong commercial grain advantages. Timely harvests in plain areas typically yield first or second grade grain; however, autumn rains and early frost can lead to higher kernel moisture, reduced test weight, and a downgrade to second or third grade.

1. Findings from a grower interview in Jixian County, Shuangyashan:

(1) Planting area: 20 hectares of corn, mainly late-maturing varieties requiring 123 to 125 days.

(2) Planting costs: 18,000 yuan per hectare, including 12,000 yuan per hectare for land rent, up about 2,000 yuan from last year, and 6,000 yuan per hectare for seeds, fertilizer, and tillage, with fertilizer prices having risen this year.

(3) Yield: Estimated wet grain at 12 to 13 tons per hectare, with a maximum of 15 tons, slightly lower than last year when some fields exceeded 15 tons per hectare.

(4) Quality: Quality is acceptable this year, primarily second grade.

(5) Harvest timing: Expected to be about a week later this year.

(6) Selling pace: Since approximately 70% of growers take out loans for planting, selling is largely driven by loan repayment obligations, with most sales completed before New Year's Day.

2. Field measurements taken at Bijiashan, Jixian County, Shuangyashan.

September 16 Survey in Fujin

Most of Fujin falls within the second accumulated temperature zone. The cooler northern part of Fujin (third temperature zone) prioritizes Demeiya 3 and Songyu 438, while the southern areas with higher accumulated temperatures (second temperature zone) use Dongnong 264, Longyu 806, and Z688. Local commercial grain is predominantly dent or semi-dent yellow kernels with fast moisture loss, suitable for mechanized harvesting in cold regions. Conventional commercial grain has starch content of 72% to 74%, with Z688 being a high-starch variety suited for starch processing. Corn grades are mainly second and third, and while starch content is similar between these grades, by-product values differ significantly, with second grade corn having higher fatty acid and oil yields. Ear lengths range from 20 to 24 cm, ear diameters from 5 to 5.5 cm, and plant heights from 270 to 300 cm.

1. Findings from an agricultural products company in Fujin:

(1) Company profile: The company's core operations include grain sales, grain and oil storage services, and agricultural machinery leasing, forming an integrated chain of procurement, storage, processing, and trade. With a procurement radius of 150 kilometers, it covers approximately 70% of production capacity in Fujin and surrounding areas, serving nearly 80,000 growers. During peak autumn procurement, daily purchases can exceed 70,000 tons, with daily drying capacity of 20,000 tons of corn and total storage capacity of 5 million tons. Corn trading is currently the core business, with annual trade volumes exceeding 10 million tons.

(2) Yield estimate: Fujin grows a variety of corn varieties, with early-maturing types like Demeiya in limited supply. Given accumulated temperature conditions in the mid-to-upper third zone, yields are lower than last year but similar to the previous two years, representing a good harvest. High-end yields reach 17 to 18 tons per hectare, translating to about 14 tons on a dry basis.

(3) Quality: Quality is acceptable in Fujin this year, primarily second and third grade, with moisture levels currently good, though late-season mold issues bear watching.

(4) Planting costs: Land rent is 15,000 to 16,000 yuan per hectare, up 1,500 to 2,000 yuan from last year, plus 6,000 yuan per hectare for seeds, fertilizer, and tillage, totaling 21,000 to 22,000 yuan per hectare, or 1,400 to 1,470 yuan per mu.

(5) Old grain inventory: Regional markets currently hold 700,000 to 800,000 tons of 2025 old corn, slightly above historical levels.

(6) Procurement status: The number of local drying towers has increased by 20% this year, purchasing directly harvested kernels. The primary procurement period runs from October to November, with a secondary period in February to March of the following year for ground-stored grain, totaling over 100,000 tons, or 20% to 30% of volume. Procurement has begun with posted prices, but volumes are limited as growers have not yet harvested and grain moisture is too high. New grain moisture levels have reached 37% to 38%, with peak procurement expected in October. Current purchase price for grain at 30% moisture is 0.85 yuan per jin. Drying costs from 30% to 14% moisture are approximately 50 yuan per ton, resulting in an equivalent price of around 2,100 yuan per ton at safe moisture levels, with port delivery costs estimated at 2,300 to 2,320 yuan per ton.

2. Field measurements taken in Fujin.

September 16-17 Survey in Jixi

Jixi spans the second and third accumulated temperature zones, with the urban area, Mishan, and Hulin largely in the second zone, while Lishu, Mashan, and Muling mountainous areas are in the third zone. Local varieties typically have 100-grain weights of 33 to 38 grams. Mainstream varieties are dent or semi-dent yellow kernels suited to mechanized harvesting with fast moisture loss. Early-maturing varieties in mountainous areas tend toward dent types with cylindrical ears, red cobs, ear lengths of 18 to 23 cm, ear diameters around 5 cm, and plant heights of 250 to 290 cm.

1. Field measurements taken in Baodong Town, Hulin.

2. Field measurements taken in Mishan.

3. Field measurements taken in Jidong County.

September 17 Survey in Mudanjiang

The Mudanjiang urban area, Ning'an, and Hailin plains fall in the second accumulated temperature zone, while Linkou and Muling mountainous areas are in the third zone. Mudanjiang has extensive mountainous terrain and fluctuating frost-free periods. Plain plots can use mid-maturing high-yield varieties, while mountainous areas must select early-maturing varieties to mitigate early frost risk, such as Muyu 378, Longdan 328, and Demeiya 3, prioritizing safe maturation. Mainstream varieties are dent or semi-dent yellow kernels suited to mechanized grain harvesting in cold regions, with starch content typically ranging from 71.5% to 74.3%. Mountainous areas of Mudanjiang face higher autumn rainfall and early frost risk than Jixi or Fujin. Late harvests or early frost can lead to higher moisture, reduced test weight, and commercial grain often grading at second or third level. Timely harvests in plain areas typically achieve first or second grade.

Corn Survey Summary

The overall survey findings indicate: (1) Planting area may have increased slightly, driven by rising corn prices from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the planting season, which improved expected returns and boosted growers' expansion intentions. Additionally, policies promoting corn-soybean strip intercropping have led some soybean fields to be converted to corn, and generally favorable weather conditions in major production areas supported good spring planting progress. (2) Yield expectations: Earlier market concerns about rainfall and low temperatures during the corn flowering and pollination stage potentially causing significant yield reductions appear overstated, as field sampling along the eastern route found very few instances of barren ear tips. Most sampled ears showed good length and diameter. However, given last year's exceptionally high yields, this year's yields may decline year-on-year, though compared to the previous two years, this still represents a good harvest, at or slightly above normal levels. (3) Quality: Overall quality is acceptable with regional variations, though vigilance is needed regarding mold exceedance, high moisture, and elevated kernel breakage rates. (4) Production: Combined assessments suggest that new season corn yields in the eastern Heilongjiang production area will decline somewhat, while area shows modest growth, with overall production roughly flat and changes relatively minor. (5) Harvest: Rainfall during the survey period left standing water in some fields in Fujin and Jixi, increasing harvest difficulty and delaying market supply compared to last year. (6) Selling: Growers generally concentrate sales at harvest time or before the Spring Festival and New Year. (7) Planting costs: Grower costs have increased year-on-year, with modest rises in land rent and fertilizer costs.

Risk disclaimer: Every effort has been made to ensure the objectivity and fairness of this report's content. However, the views, conclusions, and recommendations expressed herein are for reference only and do not constitute a basis for investment decisions. A major internet platform partners with futures brokers for account opening, offering security and assurance.