Preliminary shipping data released by Kpler on September 28 shows that crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers are expected to reach 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since February this year. Saudi Arabia's adjustment of export routes and increased loadings at Gulf ports are important reasons for this rebound.

Yanbu loading disruption prompts Saudi shift to eastern ports

This year, Saudi Arabia has mainly relied on the East-West Pipeline to send crude from eastern production areas to the Red Sea port of Yanbu for export. This route allows tankers to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler estimates that before the attacks in early September, the pipeline transported about 5.5 million barrels per day of crude, of which about 4.5 million barrels were exported via Yanbu. On September 10, multiple pumping stations along the pipeline were attacked. Kpler's port tracking data shows that Yanbu had no crude oil loadings for a period starting September 11. Saudi Arabia subsequently diverted some cargoes to eastern ports, with tankers once again passing through the Strait of Hormuz when leaving the Gulf. The change in Saudi Arabia's export routes became the main clue behind the rebound in Middle East crude shipments in September. Independent shipping monitoring also reflects this shift. Preliminary statistics from Lloyd's List Intelligence show that in the first three weeks of September this year, the number of ships owned by Saudi Arabia or flying the Saudi flag crossing the Strait of Hormuz exceeded that of any full month since the conflict began. The increased transits mainly came from large tankers under the Saudi shipping company Bahri, with some vessels turning off their Automatic Identification System while crossing the strait.

Higher exports also test ship-to-ship transfer capacity

After increased loadings at eastern ports, some crude is transported out of the Gulf by large tankers and then transferred to other vessels near the Gulf of Oman. Compared with shipping via pipeline to Yanbu for direct loading, this arrangement requires organizing more tanker voyages and depends on ship-to-ship transfer facilities around the ports. Kpler noted that onshore supporting services at major transfer locations in the Gulf of Oman are already approaching their practical handling limits. If more cargo must be sent to farther locations for transfer, the time required for a tanker to complete one round trip will increase, and the amount of crude each ship can carry in the same period will decrease accordingly. Kpler estimates that in a scenario involving an additional 3 million barrels per day of Saudi crude being transferred, the number of additional large tankers needed would vary significantly depending on the specific route. This explains why an export rebound and shipping pressure can occur at the same time: producers have increased loadings and shipments, but sustaining these volumes requires more vessels, transfer operations and strait transit arrangements. The currently published figure of 12.8 million barrels per day is still a preliminary estimate for September and reflects the export recovery observed so far this month.