Citi has sharply revised its cryptocurrency price forecasts in a new research note, raising its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000, while also lifting its Ethereum target to $3,028.

This adjustment signals a repricing of the long-term value of crypto assets by institutions. Even though current prices are already near the new targets, Citi maintains its bullish stance, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and reduced regulatory uncertainty as the key drivers.

Notably, on September 30, the very day the report was released, spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) recorded a net outflow of $148.69 million, adding complexity to this optimistic outlook through a short-term divergence in fund flows.

The rationale behind the upward revision is rooted in Citi analyst Alex Saunders' comprehensive assessment of three core indicators: market activity, macroeconomic conditions, and ETF fund flows. Saunders noted that with the failure of the Clarity Act and the clarity brought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on regulatory policy, market concerns about a systemic undervaluation of Bitcoin have eased significantly, prompting prices to return to technical support levels.

Looking back at historical data, Citi's June 30 report was extremely pessimistic, slashing its 12-month ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero, cutting its Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, and lowering its Ethereum target from $3,175 to $2,240. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at around $59,000 and Ethereum at about $1,600.

Now, Citi expects $5 billion in capital inflows over the next 12 months, mainly driven by investment advisors and brokerage firms gradually increasing their allocations. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that technical signals also confirm this shift: Bitcoin formed a golden cross on September 8, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average. ETF inflows subsequently resumed, and the price breaking above the 200-day moving average became a key turning point.

In terms of market performance, Coinglass data shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum posted gains of 42.7% and 70.8% respectively in the third quarter, with Bitcoin recording its first-ever fully positive third quarter. Year-to-date declines have narrowed to 3% and 8.4% respectively.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $84,591, up 1.18% in 24 hours, with Citi's target price about 34% above the current level. By comparison, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, expects Bitcoin to break above $100,000 by 2027, making Citi's forecast more aggressive.

However, short-term demand is showing signs of fatigue. Bitcoin ETF demand cooled in late September, with CryptoQuant data showing a reduction of 170,000 coins in actual spot demand over 30 days. On the Ethereum side, the current price is $2,699.46, up 0.34% on the day. The new target price leaves only about 12% upside and remains below the $3,175 target set before June 30.

On the supply side, Santiment data shows that only 3.49% of Ethereum's supply was held on exchanges last week, indicating relatively limited selling pressure. However, inflows into Ethereum ETF (ETHA.US) ended a seven-day rising streak on September 29.

The key future milestone is whether Citi's inflow projections prove correct. With the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet on October 27-28, the market will closely watch subsequent fund data changes. If macroeconomic policy shifts or liquidity expectations change, it could further affect the pricing logic of crypto assets.

Investors need to be wary of the tension between short-term ETF outflows and long-term target prices, as such divergences often signal increased market volatility. In addition, expert opinions and in-depth analysis on social media platforms such as X and YouTube channels provide diverse perspectives for understanding this complex situation.

Overall, Citi's upward revision reflects institutions rebuilding confidence after regulatory clarity, but the cooling of short-term fund flows reminds the market that a long-term bull run is not linear, and the resonance between technical and fundamental signals remains a key variable.