Recently, the core asset of LEADS BIOLABS-B (09887), Virelimab® (opapatusumimab, a PD-L1/4-1BB bispecific antibody), has attracted significant attention in the international academic community.

On September 14, LEADS BIOLABS-B presented updated Phase II clinical trial data for the drug in combination with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for NSCLC in an oral presentation at the WCLC 2026 congress. The company subsequently announced that its pivotal registrational Phase IIB study of the drug as monotherapy for advanced EP-NEC has been selected for a Late-Breaking Abstract (LBA) at the 2026 ESMO Congress in October, with three studies receiving preferred oral presentation status.

For an 18A company currently priced on a "clinical data/BD optionality" logic, this is undoubtedly a clear positive. However, in the secondary market, LEADS BIOLABS-B appears not to have received a premium from these positive developments. According to Zhitong Finance APP observations, after the intraday stock price touched a阶段性 high of HK$78.40, LEADS BIOLABS-B began to enter a sustained downward channel, and even after the disclosure of positive announcements on September 14 and September 21, the stock price failed to be significantly boosted. Therefore, when the stock price of LEADS BIOLABS-B will reflect these positives has become the focus of investors at this stage.

When Will the One-Way Decline End?

From a technical perspective, from August 17 to now, the stock price of LEADS BIOLABS-B has experienced a maximum drawdown of 33.16%. During this process, it has exhibited a complex structure on the technical front: "strong bearish trend + deep oversold + shrinking volume new lows."

From the perspective of moving averages, since the 5-day line officially confirmed a death cross below the 10-day line on September 1, the stock price of LEADS BIOLABS-B has entered a downward trend with all moving average indicators in a bearish alignment. Although on September 24, its 60-day line remained above the 20-day line, starting from September 16, all of LEADS BIOLABS-B's chart moving averages had been breached by the stock price, and the company's stock price was also entirely below the BBI indicator for the day. This indicates that while the current chart confirms bearish dominance, it has shifted from short-term weakness to medium-term weakness on the technical front.

The above conclusion is also cross-validated by the momentum indicators and volume-price performance during the same period. In terms of momentum indicators, whether RSI, CCI, or WR indicators all show severe oversold signals, with RSI and CCI having been in the oversold zone for more than 10 days. Meanwhile, the KDJ indicator also indicates deep oversold conditions, not only showing an extremely low J value of -10.11 within the range but also forming another death cross on September 24, suggesting that the company's stock price still faces惯性 downward pressure in the short term.

In terms of volume performance, since September, the stock price of LEADS BIOLABS-B has continued to decline with heavy volume. On September 15, the day of the sharp drop, the company's stock price saw trading volume reach 6.4323 million shares, indicating obvious panic selling characteristics.

Reviewing the entire process of this round of decline in LEADS BIOLABS-B's stock price, investors can easily see that alongside the bearish alignment of moving averages, there is also a high-level resonance of the ADX indicator. To some extent, this may indicate that this round of movement in LEADS BIOLABS-B is not an ordinary pullback but a trend-driven sell-off. Especially on September 14, the day after the company disclosed data at the WCLC congress, the stock price experienced a single-day heavy-volume plunge of 7.15%, confirming an acceleration of the downward trend.

Afterward, although the stock price rebounded slightly, the volume shrank, and the rebound strength also noticeably decreased. However, its on-market volume structure did show some marginal changes after the sharp drop on September 15. According to Zhitong Finance APP observations, during the period from September 16 to September 24, the average daily trading volume of LEADS BIOLABS-B shares significantly shrank compared to September 15, at one point only 1.0031 million shares, which to some extent indicates a weakening trend in active selling pressure. Moreover, the on-market OBV indicator also recovered from a low of -3.06 on September 16 to -2.57 on September 23, forming a bullish OBV divergence, showing an early trend of marginal improvement in capital flows and a钝化 phenomenon during weak consolidation.

However, if the company's chart subsequently shows consecutive heavy-volume bullish candles, this may become an important signal indicating that LEADS BIOLABS-B's stock price will terminate this round of one-way decline.

When Will the Market Price in the Positives?

As mentioned above, for an 18A company, the many positive developments recently announced by LEADS BIOLABS-B are sufficient to become important drivers for a short-term stock price reversal, but from the feedback in the secondary market, investors seem to be waiting for a more important time window.

Looking at the stock price performance after the lock-up expiration of early shareholders of LEADS BIOLABS-B on July 25 this year, the company's stock price achieved a maximum gain of 58.06% between July 30 and August 17. The important reasons driving the company's stock price out of the above trend were, first, the clearing of lock-up shares on the market side, and second, the continuous release of R&D milestone positives for the core asset Virelimab®.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, although the early shareholder lock-up expiration wave that LEADS BIOLABS-B faced on July 25 involved 42 early shareholders of the company, with 104 million shares unlocked, accounting for 52.22% of the company's total share capital, and involving a market value of HK$5.271 billion, and there was also a large-scale stock depository anomaly before the unlock, the company announced on July 24 that the CEO voluntarily extended the lock-up period, which to some extent stabilized market confidence.

In terms of on-market performance, LEADS BIOLABS-B had a combined turnover rate of approximately 20% over the three days from July 27 to 29, with trading volume surging from the million-share level to the ten-million-share level. Although its stock price closed at a阶段性 low of HK$50.90 on July 30, the turnover rate also quickly fell back to 1.18%. As the lock-up expiration selling pressure on LEADS BIOLABS-B was fully digested, it signaled the completion of a short-term reset of its shareholding structure.

Afterward, LEADS BIOLABS-B released R&D and regulatory milestones for its core asset Virelimab® on July 30, August 3, and August 6, respectively, combined with the market trading ahead of the drug's NDA expectations, which drove the company's stock price to rise continuously, eventually reaching a阶段性 high. On August 21, the day the company announced the acceptance of Virelimab®'s NDA, its stock price instead closed down 6.44%. This actually reflects that the market's pricing rhythm is "expectations first, realization on landing." In other words, the above positives had already been fully traded before.

This pricing rhythm is also reflected in the WCLC congress data disclosure. Although LEADS BIOLABS-B officially disclosed the updated Phase II clinical study data for Virelimab® in combination with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for NSCLC only on September 14, key data had actually been partially disclosed as early as the abstract release on August 20. The 8.02% gain in the company's stock price that day was already pricing in "positive data."

Since at the time of the WCLC abstract release, the intraday profit ratio of LEADS BIOLABS-B had already reached above 80%, this positive was more like an "emotional amplifier" that accelerated the company's stock price trend at the time and became an important "driver" for subsequent continuous positive realization and stock price pullback.

If the market's pricing rhythm for LEADS BIOLABS-B continues to maintain "expectations first, realization on landing," then at this stage, it may be getting closer to a key turning point for its next round of movement, and the key catalyst among these is the 2026 ESMO Congress.

For LEADS BIOLABS-B, the data to be disclosed at the ESMO Congress this time is particularly important because it discloses the "decisive evidence" for the NDA approval of the core asset Virelimab®. In the announcement released on September 21, LEADS BIOLABS-B clearly stated that the EP-NEC IIb study was selected as an LBA and received a preferred oral presentation, "marking that this study possesses breakthrough innovative nature and significant clinical value, and its results are expected to change existing clinical practice."

This study evaluates Virelimab as monotherapy for advanced EP-NEC patients who have received second-line or later treatment, and it is precisely the core registrational study on which the NDA submission is based. In short, the core asset data about to be disclosed at the ESMO 2026 Congress is essentially a "commercialization access verification" for LEADS BIOLABS-B. For this 18A company that has not yet achieved product commercialization, the disclosure of the above data may become a key variable determining its future medium- to long-term valuation center.