Mortgage "Rate Cut": How Much Can Monthly Payments Drop on a 1 Million Yuan Home Loan?

Deep News
Sep 29

The nationwide homebuyer interest subsidy loan policy, which the market has watched closely, has now been implemented. On September 29, the Ministry of Finance, together with the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, issued the "Notice on Implementing the Interest Subsidy Policy for Residential Home Purchase Loans," specifying that starting October 1, interest subsidies will be provided for residents who use newly issued commercial personal housing loans to buy homes, in order to lower the cost of home purchases and better support and unleash the rigid housing demand of urban and rural residents.

This subsidy policy focuses on first-home rigid demand, with priority support for ordinary families newly purchasing small and medium-sized homes at relatively low prices, where the building area of a single household's purchased home does not exceed 120 square meters and the purchase price does not exceed 1.5 million yuan. The new policy is an important lever in the incremental measures to stabilize the property market. On the day it was implemented, the property sector in the capital market strengthened in response. The four major stock indices all closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.34%, the ChiNext Index up 0.09%, and the STAR Composite Index up 0.69%. Real estate stocks rose collectively, with multiple stocks such as Xinda Real Estate and Huafa Industrial hitting the daily limit.

Interest rates discounted by one-third. This subsidy policy is precisely targeted and clearly defines a strict scope of application. First, it applies to the purchase of a first home using a newly issued commercial personal housing loan, excluding replacement of existing loans. The determination of a "first home" follows current policy and includes both new and second-hand homes. Second, the building area of the purchased home must not exceed 120 square meters. Third, the price of the purchased home must not exceed 1.5 million yuan. Relevant officials from the Ministry of Finance and the central bank said the above conditions are mainly set to focus on supporting the basic home purchase needs of rigid-demand groups. Considering differences across cities in residents' income, housing area, and price levels, the central level seeks nationwide balance by coordinating livelihood protection, basic security, broad coverage, fairness promotion, and fiscal capacity. For groups using loans to buy affordable housing and those using housing provident fund loans to buy homes, the state already has relevant policy support, and this policy will not be stacked on top of that support.

In terms of subsidy intensity, the new policy offers a clear benefit: a 1 percentage point interest subsidy to reduce the interest cost of residents' mortgage home purchases. The loan scale eligible for the subsidy is up to 1 million yuan, and fiscal authorities provide an annualized 1 percentage point subsidy. Based on the current interest rate level for first-home commercial personal housing loans, this is equivalent to a one-third discount on the interest rate, with a subsidy period of up to 5 years. Officials from the Ministry of Finance and the central bank gave an example: for a long-term 1 million yuan commercial personal housing loan, considering that most mortgages pay interest monthly and the loan balance decreases month by month, the subsidy policy can help borrowers reduce cumulative interest payments by nearly 50,000 yuan at most. The specific subsidy amount received by a household varies depending on loan size, term, repayment method, and other factors.

In the second quarter of 2026, the weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide was 3.06%. If measured using a 1 million yuan mortgage, equal principal and interest repayment, and a 3.06% interest rate, the monthly payment would be 5,576 yuan for a 20-year loan, 4,248 yuan for a 30-year loan, and 3,615 yuan for a 40-year loan. If the rate falls to 2.06% after the subsidy, then in the first 5 years the monthly payment for a 20-year term would decrease by 489 yuan, saving about 29,300 yuan in cumulative interest over 5 years; for a 30-year term, the monthly payment would decrease by 522 yuan, saving about 31,300 yuan over 5 years; and for a 40-year term, the monthly payment would decrease by 555 yuan, saving about 33,300 yuan over 5 years.

The policy starts on October 1 this year, and the implementation period is tentatively set at 1 year. During this period, eligible households can all receive fiscal interest subsidy support. In implementation, there is no upper limit on the total scale of funds, the budget has been fully arranged, and settlement will be based on actual conditions.

What other incremental policies may emerge? A day earlier (September 28), the State Council executive meeting clearly introduced multiple incremental economic policies and included stabilizing the property market as a key task. The meeting made clear that a batch of pragmatic and effective incremental policies should be introduced, fiscal expenditure arrangements should be optimized, the carryover limit of local government debt should be used well, monetary policy tools should be comprehensively used and adjusted in a timely manner, relending quotas for scientific and technological innovation, technological upgrading, agriculture support, and small and micro business support should be increased, and policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth should be studied and introduced.

The China Index Academy expects that among nationwide policies to stabilize the property market, there is still room for lowering housing provident fund loan rates, allowing home purchase interest to offset personal income tax, further reducing transaction taxes and fees, and acquiring existing commercial housing and existing land with greater intensity. These are also expected to become important directions for incremental policies in the future. Zhang Yu, chief economist at Huachuang Securities, believes that future policy space at the national level may focus on the following aspects: first, further optimizing housing provident fund policy and moderately lowering provident fund rates; second, moderately raising and optimizing the personal income tax deduction standard for housing loan interest; third, further optimizing the policy for purchasing and stockpiling existing housing. Because the capital investment in purchasing, renovating, and operating existing housing is large and the cycle is long, social capital's willingness to participate is relatively insufficient. In the urban renewal "15th Five-Year Plan," stockpiling existing housing has been established as a regular task for the next five years. There is a possibility that fiscal and financial support policies will be strengthened.

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