CITIC Securities has released a research report noting that the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period offers conditions for an extended break by taking three days of leave to enjoy thirteen consecutive days off. This is likely to drive strong travel demand and may shift consumption from residential areas to travel destinations, with goods-based consumption further transitioning toward service-oriented consumption. As domestic beauty brands establish hero products, the beauty category is gradually entering the gift-giving track traditionally dominated by food and liquor, and attention should be paid to beauty brands ramping up gift marketing efforts. The extended holiday is expected to catalyze continued prosperity for medical aesthetics institutions, with new products emerging on the product side, and focus should be placed on validating new products during the peak sales season. In the jewelry sector, attention should be paid to domestic and overseas gold price spreads and overall sales momentum, while pressure from wedding-related demand should not be overlooked. The main views from CITIC Securities are as follows.
Beauty: Structural Divergence Amid Rising Demand for Holiday Gifting
Since the beginning of 2026, the beauty industry has generally shown characteristics of stable overall volume with structural divergence, with premium and international brands performing more strongly, while rising traffic costs have further pressured the profitability of domestic brands. The 618 promotional event demonstrated a strong siphon effect, and cosmetics retail sales growth has shown some pullback since the second half of the year, with year-on-year growth rates of +12.6%, +6.8%, and +4.9% for June, July, and August respectively, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Holiday gift sets have become an important incremental driver for brands, with brands seizing holiday gifting demand and increasing marketing efforts, typically employing strategies of self-broadcasting matrices combined with tiered influencer outreach. Top-selling products include but are not limited to the following: according to Chanmama, Shangmei Co., Ltd. subsidiary KANS brand upgraded its Hongmanyao product line in September and increased investment in the Hongmanyao set; L'Oreal launched the L'Oreal Revitalift Mid-Autumn limited edition gift box; and Giant Biogene subsidiary Kefumei introduced a National Day travel mask gift box.
Medical Aesthetics: Institutional Prosperity Expected to Continue, Focus on New Product Validation During Peak Season
Medical aesthetics procedures require a certain recovery period for wounds after treatment, and the extended holiday period represents a peak season for medical aesthetics demand. Combined with the possibility of taking three days off for thirteen consecutive days during this year's Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday, this is expected to further catalyze medical aesthetics demand, and the prosperity of medical aesthetics institutions is likely to continue. On the product side, new products have been successively approved and launched. According to company announcements, since the second half of 2026, Imeik launched its exclusively distributed botulinum toxin brand Jiesuo Cheng, and its subsidiary Shanghai Weimai launched Haisu, while Bloomage Biotech has been approved to distribute VAIM GLOBAL's JUVELOOK. New products are entering their first peak season validation, and close attention should be paid to product feedback and sales data.
Jewelry: Wedding Demand Pressure Should Not Be Ignored, Focus on Peak Season Sales and Domestic-Overseas Gold Price Spreads
Holidays represent a peak season for gold jewelry purchases. Although the proportion of wedding-related demand has continued to decline in recent years, wedding consumption still accounts for a relatively high share during holiday spending. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 2024, affected by the lunar year considered inauspicious for marriages, the number of marriages hit a historic low, with some wedding demand deferred to 2025, reaching 6.76 million couples, up 10.8% year-on-year. This resulted in a relatively high base for wedding demand in 2025, as it absorbed some demand deferred from 2024. In the first half of 2026, the number of marriages was 3.275 million couples, down 7.5% year-on-year. The report expects that wedding demand in the second half of 2026 may continue to face pressure, potentially weighing on jewelry sales, especially during the holiday period. Additionally, during holidays, the Shanghai gold market closes while overseas gold prices continue to fluctuate, and the widened price spread caused by this discrepancy will affect consumer decisions. If overseas gold prices rise, it could catalyze domestic gold consumption.
Offline Retail: Under Weak Recovery, Overall Offline Sales Under Pressure, Mall Renovations Continue, Structural Opportunities Merit Attention
Since the beginning of 2026, retail sales growth has slowed, with demand generally showing a weak recovery. The Mid-Autumn holiday performance was stable. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce's commerce big data, during the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 6.1% compared to the same period of the previous lunar year. The 78 pedestrian streets and commercial districts monitored by the Ministry of Commerce saw foot traffic and revenue increase by 6.4% and 5.1% respectively. Some categories performed notably well, with smart, green, and health-related products selling briskly. Sales of smart wearable devices on key platforms increased by 120%, sales of embodied intelligent robots grew by 93.1%, sales of organic food rose by 36.3%, and sales of outdoor sports equipment increased by 30.2%. Offline retail enterprises are actively reducing costs and improving efficiency while pursuing renovation and transformation. After long-term restructuring, Chongqing Group has established four major commercial complexes in Chongqing's Guanyinqiao commercial district, namely Century Xindu, Sunshine Century Outlets, Chongbai Dream Factory, and New Century Center Yingli Hui, respectively covering high-end boutique consumption, urban outlet discount consumption, domestic animation and trendy toy community consumption, and trendy social lifestyle consumption.
Risk Factors
Surge in traffic and marketing expenses eroding net profit margins; stock consolidation and disorderly competition eroding performance; various transformation efforts potentially falling short of expectations; unexpected gold price fluctuations; and major public opinion events or other black swan incidents.