JPMorgan said crude flows from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels, even though shipping still faces risks.

"The Middle East's oil export artery is opening up again," JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a Sept. 29 report, calling it a "remarkable recovery" for a region still at war, although the rebound has been uneven.

According to JPMorgan data, crude flows from the Middle East have now rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels, while shipments of refined products such as diesel and gasoline stand at 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels.

The 10-day average over the past five days shows overall shipments have reached 89% of 2025 levels.

The analysts said crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost "returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels per day, led mainly by Saudi Arabia."

"But higher transit volumes should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry's growing ability to operate amid persistent risks."