On September 30, Axsome Therapeutics fell 5.46% in regular trading, trading at $183.07/share, with turnover of $156 million. The decline was triggered by Deutsche Bank lowering its price target on the stock to $267 from $280, while maintaining a Buy rating.
Although the target cut was modest, it came at a sensitive time as the stock had accumulated significant gains following the FDA approval of Auvelity for Alzheimer's disease agitation in May and strong prescription momentum thereafter. The company reported Q2 net product revenue of $218.4 million, up 46% year-over-year, with Auvelity generating $180.3 million in sales. However, EPS missed consensus estimates in both Q1 and Q2, with Q2 losses of $0.99 per share versus the $0.83-$0.89 estimate, amplifying profit-taking sentiment.
Broader analyst consensus remains constructive, with a mean price target of $282.52. Mizuho maintains an Outperform rating with a $316 target, citing double-digit prescription growth for Auvelity in Alzheimer's agitation. RBC projects Auvelity revenue of $804 million for the full year, with peak sales potentially reaching $5-6 billion.
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