Meta Platforms (META.US)'s artificial intelligence (AI) agent Muse has continued to attract user attention since its launch last month.

BNP Paribas, citing third-party data, noted that Muse's cumulative downloads have exceeded 5.6 million and it has topped the Apple App Store rankings, with its initial U.S. market launch performance even surpassing OpenAI's ChatGPT and Sora.

However, despite Muse's strong user appeal, BNP Paribas believes that whether the product can convert early momentum into long-term user engagement and how it will achieve sustained monetization remain issues investors need to watch.

BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones maintained an Outperform rating on Meta with a price target of $885 in his latest report.

He pointed out that Meta's massive social platform user base provides a clear advantage for Muse's promotion, but the product is still in the early stage of cultivating user habits.

Strong Initial Download Performance; Meta's Social Ecosystem Fuels User Growth

According to third-party data cited by BNP Paribas, Muse has accumulated more than 5.6 million downloads since its September launch and briefly topped the Apple App Store rankings.

Jones said that compared with other AI platforms, Muse's initial U.S. launch downloads exceeded ChatGPT and Sora.

He believes this performance is not surprising because Meta's Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook have massive existing user bases that can provide natural promotion channels and user traffic for Muse.

Unlike standalone AI apps that need to build a user base from scratch, Meta can leverage the reach of its existing social products to increase the new product's market exposure and reduce user acquisition costs.

It is worth noting that OpenAI's video generation app Sora went viral quickly last year but has since been integrated into ChatGPT and no longer operates as a standalone app.

However, rapid download growth does not mean Muse has already established stable user habits.

Jones noted that Muse's app open rate has now stabilized but remains below mature apps such as Google, ChatGPT, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook.

In his view, this suggests that while Muse has successfully attracted many users to try it, it still has some distance to go before becoming a frequently used daily tool for consumers.

For Meta, the key in the next phase will no longer be just driving download growth, but improving user retention, usage frequency, and long-term engagement.

Difficult to Disrupt Vertical Platforms in the Short Term; User Experience Still Needs Improvement

As AI agents gradually gain capabilities such as information search, product comparison, and transaction execution, the market has begun to focus on whether such products could pose competitive threats to e-commerce, travel, and other vertical service platforms.

However, BNP Paribas believes that at this stage, it is not appropriate to overestimate Muse's impact on these platforms.

Jones said that although Muse received a good initial market response, given its still limited user penetration and its lack of direct goods or service supply, complete transaction experience, and customer service capabilities that vertical platforms possess, the product is unlikely to pose a substantial threat in the short term.

For example, specialized e-commerce or travel platforms typically not only provide information search and recommendation services but also have complete systems for inventory, transaction processing, order management, and after-sales support.

By contrast, even if AI agents can help users discover products or services, they may not be able to independently complete the entire transaction process.

Therefore, whether Muse can further change consumers' shopping and service usage habits in the future still depends on whether Meta can continue to improve relevant functions and expand cooperation with external merchants.

Long-Term Monetization Model Still Uncertain; Advertising Could Be a Key Breakthrough

In addition to user growth and product features, Muse's commercialization path is also a key focus for BNP Paribas.

Advertising has long been Meta's main source of revenue.

However, for a consumer AI agent like Muse, there is still no clear answer on how the company will build a mature revenue model in the future.

According to Jones's analysis, Muse currently appears to monetize partially by charging partners a small transaction fee.

At the same time, Muse adopts a model combining free basic services with paid subscriptions: the basic version is free, while users with higher usage needs can pay monthly for higher usage quotas.

Jones believes this pricing strategy can help Meta expand its user base and increase user engagement in the early stages of product development, rather than pursuing revenue maximization too early.

However, he emphasized that Muse's long-term monetization ability remains an important issue for investors.

Considering Meta's experience and resources in digital advertising, BNP Paribas believes that as Muse's user engagement continues to rise, advertising could become an attractive commercialization direction in the future.

This means that Muse's future revenue sources may not be limited to subscription fees and transaction commissions but could also gradually expand into advertising.

However, with user habits not yet fully established, whether related business models can generate meaningful revenue remains to be verified.

OpenAI Launches Dots; Competition in Consumer AI Agents May Further Intensify

In addition to Muse's own development, BNP Paribas is also watching competitive changes emerging in the consumer AI agent market.

Among them, OpenAI's new product Dots launched this week has drawn analyst attention.

Jones believes that how much user recognition Dots can gain in the future will be an important indicator for observing the competitive landscape of this market.

At the same time, the market is also watching whether SpaceX (SPCX.US), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.US, GOOG.US), and other tech companies will launch competitive consumer AI agent products.

As more companies explore using AI to complete complex tasks, competition in the consumer AI agent market may gradually expand from model performance to multiple areas such as product experience, user retention, service integration, and commercialization capability.

For Meta, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook constitute important user distribution advantages, but whether it can convert these advantages into sustained growth in usage demand for Muse still needs more time to test.