The State Council executive meeting once again outlined plans to study and introduce policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting employment and income growth. Following Beijing's lead, Shanghai has officially implemented detailed rules for its commercial housing sales system. With warm policy tailwinds blowing through the property sector, institutions are bullish on developers and leading intermediaries deeply rooted in core cities.
On September 28, the State Council executive meeting, while studying work related to enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, stated the need to intensify counter-cyclical adjustments, roll out a batch of pragmatic and effective incremental policies, and study measures to stabilize the housing market and boost employment and income. On the same day, four Shanghai departments jointly issued implementation guidelines for the notice on improving the commercial housing sales system, effective immediately. The guidelines cover six measures: raising the pre-sale threshold (projects must have their main structure topped out before applying for pre-sale), orderly implementation of completed-home sales, introducing a deposit system for completed-home sales, implementing a lead bank system, issuing mortgage loans after completion filing, and allowing installment payments for land costs.
Notably, these policies are not isolated events. On August 28, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a notice on improving the commercial housing sales system. On September 24, Beijing became the first to implement detailed rules, and Shanghai's follow-up suggests more cities may join in succession.
From a fundamental perspective, National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to August, the floor area of new commercial housing sales nationwide fell 12.1% year-on-year, with sales value down 13.0%. In August, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices in Shanghai increased 0.3% month-on-month, the highest among 70 cities.
Institutions: Policy Quality and Price Confirmation Determine Market Sustainability
Currently, the housing market is in a phase of divergence where second-hand homes outperform new homes and core cities lead the recovery. The policy focus is shifting from merely stimulating demand to structural reconstruction of sales systems and financing methods. A Shenwan Hongyuan research report noted that after China's real estate sector experienced deep adjustments, the magnitude and duration of price and volume corrections, as well as household balance sheet adjustments, have been relatively sufficient, and the industry's fundamental bottom is gradually approaching. The institution believes Shanghai's housing price bottom may already be established, with other core cities like Shenzhen expected to stabilize gradually. Leading developers could enjoy dual elasticity in fundamentals and valuation. Huachuang Securities, in a September 22 report, stated that periodic rallies in property stocks are influenced by both policy quality and market confirmation. Whether directional statements can translate into funding support and execution arrangements is key to judging policy quality. Future focus could be on three main lines: housing provident fund reform, housing loan interest subsidies, and urban renewal. China International Capital Corporation (CICC), interpreting the completed-home sales system, believes it marks the official launch of a profound reform in housing sales, with developers' cash flow management shifting from high turnover after land acquisition to free cash flow recovery taking two and a half to three years post-acquisition. Short-term, highly leveraged developers' land acquisition capacity will weaken, while mid-to-long-term, top central SOEs are expected to gain advantage, though continuous observation is still needed. Tianfeng Securities, from a financing perspective, judges that the new policies may effectively repair risk appetite for the property sector in the short term, with significant mid-term divergence in industry structure. Policy dividends will concentrate on developers with high-quality underlying projects, mature operating assets, and professional operational capabilities.
Latest List of High-Performing, High-Dividend Targets Released
According to East Money's industry sector data, 95 A-share stocks currently belong to the real estate industry, with a combined total market capitalization of approximately 949.1 billion yuan. Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Vanke rank in the top three by size. Year-to-date, the real estate concept sector has shown weak overall performance, but has strengthened since September, with 45 stocks recording price gains. World Union Group surged over 35%, leading the pack, while 5i5j Holding Group and *ST Huangting both rose over 20%. China Vanke, *ST Huaxing, ST Haitai, and 10 other stocks all gained over 10%.
From a capital flow perspective, East Money Choice data shows that since September, 17 property stocks have attracted leveraged buyers. Among them, 5i5j Holding Group saw 109 million yuan in margin purchases, World Union Group and Huayuan Holdings both attracted nearly 60 million yuan, and China Enterprise, Yingxin Development, and Quzhou Development each saw net margin buying exceeding 24 million yuan. In terms of interim results, leading Poly Developments topped the sector with 1.959 billion yuan in net profit attributable to shareholders, while Binjiang Group, Nanjing Gaoke, and Lujiazui all exceeded 1.1 billion yuan in profit. In terms of growth, Hualian Holdings saw interim net profit soar 12.6 times year-on-year, Zhongzhou Holdings surged 421.76%, Suzhou New District and Shanghai Lingang grew 247.58% and 130.83% respectively, and Lujiazui rose 35.91%.
East Money Choice data shows that 21 property stocks achieved profitability with year-on-year net profit growth in the first half, of which 8 had dividend yields (TTM) exceeding 1.4%. China World Trade Center achieved 633 million yuan in interim net profit, with a dividend yield as high as 5.37%. Waigaoqiao, China Merchants Property Operation & Service, Ningbo Fuda, and Shanghai Lingang all exceeded 100 million yuan in profit, with dividend yields ranging from 2.35% to 3.76%.